the monty hall problem
Katie called and woke me up last night to tell me to go to Wikipedia and check out the Monty Hall problem. "I think I need to pick a new door," she said.
I just read it, and I get the whole thing about the 1/3 probability the first time and the 2/3 probably if you change your door after you see the first goat, but...
Ok, fine...you got 3 doors. Behind one of the doors is a new car and behind the other 2 doors are goats. So you pick door #1, which has the car, and Monty Hall opens door #3 and there's a goat. And then offers to let you switch your pick, and you stick with #1, and you lucky devil...you get the car.
You leave the studio, drive off in your brand new car, light yourself a smoke, turn on "Tunnel of Love" and think smugly how fucking cool you are because you won the car. But what you're not thinking about is that your car has already depreciated in value like 50%, and every time you drive over a pothole or hit a pedestrian it depreciates a little bit more. Then, you realize that you just got this car from some 85 year-old dude from a game show that rewards women like my mother who can, not unlike Mary Poppins, produce the most obscure item from their purse at any given moment.
Conversation from my mother's last visit:
My mom while I'm emptying my scrub pockets after work: Oooohhhh alcohol pads!
Me: Do you want some? I have like 300 from emptying my pockets every day.
Mom: What a great thing to keep in my purse just in case. Oooohhhh what's that?
Me (looking at her like she's nuts): It's a suture kit.
Mom (eyes lighting up, reaching out for it): Well you never know when someone might get a cut that needs to be stitched. Oh my what are those?
Me (incredulously): They're mesh underwear.
Mom (so excited): You never know when you might need a clean, fresh pair of underwear!
(Note: every time this comes up like at a family dinner or holiday and everyone around the table starts asking my mom, "do you have a dish towel?" "do you have all 50 state quarters or just those 27?" "do you have blue chenille yarn?" "do you have any other flavors of gum besides those 6?" "do you have any gameboy games?" she pulls stuff out and says, "do you want light blue, royal blue, or navy blue?" and "here's the gum but don't break your teeth on it...it's been in here for like 3 years..." and my whole point is proven that you really don't NEED that stuff if you only need it once every 3 years when the family is gathered at the dinner table mocking your purse or if you happen to be in the audience of Let's Make a Deal.)
Anyway, you're driving in your new car and you realize it's a 4-door sedan and even though it's got a sun roof and radio controllers on your steering wheel (I love my new car!) you didn't pick it out, you love your old car, the inside of it is a hideous color, the cup holders are too small, and there's only a tape deck and no cd player.
And then you say to yourself, "Fuck this shit. I shoulda picked the goat."
But what the hell are you gonna do with a goat? You can't afford to feed it, all it does is make lots of noise and poop everywhere, your neighbors want to kill you because it really gets their goat and let's face it Katie, your goat smells.
You can't win. Both options suck. And just by virtue of having been given a choice, somewhere down the road you're gonna question your choice and think you picked the wrong thing. But it doesn't matter because you can't go back and get the goat, you're stuck with the car, which is fine, but you know, just not enough, just not IT.
Ok?
I just read it, and I get the whole thing about the 1/3 probability the first time and the 2/3 probably if you change your door after you see the first goat, but...
Ok, fine...you got 3 doors. Behind one of the doors is a new car and behind the other 2 doors are goats. So you pick door #1, which has the car, and Monty Hall opens door #3 and there's a goat. And then offers to let you switch your pick, and you stick with #1, and you lucky devil...you get the car.
You leave the studio, drive off in your brand new car, light yourself a smoke, turn on "Tunnel of Love" and think smugly how fucking cool you are because you won the car. But what you're not thinking about is that your car has already depreciated in value like 50%, and every time you drive over a pothole or hit a pedestrian it depreciates a little bit more. Then, you realize that you just got this car from some 85 year-old dude from a game show that rewards women like my mother who can, not unlike Mary Poppins, produce the most obscure item from their purse at any given moment.Conversation from my mother's last visit:
My mom while I'm emptying my scrub pockets after work: Oooohhhh alcohol pads!
Me: Do you want some? I have like 300 from emptying my pockets every day.
Mom: What a great thing to keep in my purse just in case. Oooohhhh what's that?
Me (looking at her like she's nuts): It's a suture kit.
Mom (eyes lighting up, reaching out for it): Well you never know when someone might get a cut that needs to be stitched. Oh my what are those?
Me (incredulously): They're mesh underwear.
Mom (so excited): You never know when you might need a clean, fresh pair of underwear!
(Note: every time this comes up like at a family dinner or holiday and everyone around the table starts asking my mom, "do you have a dish towel?" "do you have all 50 state quarters or just those 27?" "do you have blue chenille yarn?" "do you have any other flavors of gum besides those 6?" "do you have any gameboy games?" she pulls stuff out and says, "do you want light blue, royal blue, or navy blue?" and "here's the gum but don't break your teeth on it...it's been in here for like 3 years..." and my whole point is proven that you really don't NEED that stuff if you only need it once every 3 years when the family is gathered at the dinner table mocking your purse or if you happen to be in the audience of Let's Make a Deal.)
Anyway, you're driving in your new car and you realize it's a 4-door sedan and even though it's got a sun roof and radio controllers on your steering wheel (I love my new car!) you didn't pick it out, you love your old car, the inside of it is a hideous color, the cup holders are too small, and there's only a tape deck and no cd player.
And then you say to yourself, "Fuck this shit. I shoulda picked the goat."
But what the hell are you gonna do with a goat? You can't afford to feed it, all it does is make lots of noise and poop everywhere, your neighbors want to kill you because it really gets their goat and let's face it Katie, your goat smells.
You can't win. Both options suck. And just by virtue of having been given a choice, somewhere down the road you're gonna question your choice and think you picked the wrong thing. But it doesn't matter because you can't go back and get the goat, you're stuck with the car, which is fine, but you know, just not enough, just not IT.
Ok?
posted by jill at 09:40
4 Comments:
OKay...but what about the Wink Martindale Mystery or the Bert Convy Conundrum or the Bill Cullen Confusion or the Art Flemming Flabbergast?
True dat.
I think I understood 1/3 of the Monty Hall Problem the first time I heard about it. Now I think theres a 2/3 chance I understand it all.
And you are right about my goat, he stinks.
finally...i write a blog that gets more than zzzzzzzzzz or yawn. fuckin a.
you watch too much game show television. but did you know i share a birthday with bob barker?
and are any of those aforementioned game show gods even still alive?
oh katie kate...you understand more than you think. it's just putting it all into action that's hard.
like i said at dinner or during that dumbass review maybe...it's the choice itself that sucks. just wait and see, and it'll happen when you're not looking. we can't pick that shit. if we could, i'd be much more pleasant right now.
a wise man once said to me (actually he said it 2 or 3 times i think) "let it breathe." don't pick. just go with it.
your owls don't smell, btw. but yeah, your goat does. as does the clean u.
Post a Comment
<< Home